Maharashtra Elections ... Urban divide

I was intrigued a lot by the election results today from Maharashtra. I was wondering how could a party that hasn't done much get elected to a 3rd term. INC-NCP look to get around 144 and BJP-SS might get 90, and MNS might get 13 seats.

One of the reasons that I wondered why this could have happened was because of totally unorganized opposition. SS is squarely blaming MNS for the big division.So there were many reasons. I went to the http://eciresults.ap.nic.in/Constituencywise.htm and decided to analyse the results.

So I broke down the results into urban and rural constituency. For urban constituencies, I focussed on Mumbai, Pune, Nagpur, Thane, Kalyan, Bhiwandi, Nashik, Aurangabad, etc. These totalled about 75 out of 288 constituences. What I found was indeed startling :
With the way the results panned out, Congress was the leading party with 25 seats, NCP with 8, BJP with 13, SS with 11, and MNS with 11. Independents with 4 and SP with 3.
Therefore UPA gets 34, NDA 24, MNS 11, Rest 7
So if MNS had combined with NDA, NDA would have been 35 with UPA at 34. Well thats with basic arithmetic.

What I hadn't bargained for was that MNS has damaged BJP-SS in atleast 15 seats. So if MNS wasn't there, and we assume that bulk of the MNS vote would go to SS+, then the results would have been:
INC -15, NCP -3, BJP-19,SS-17, MNS-14,IND-4,SP-3.
i.e. UPA - 18, NDA-50, IND-4, and SP-3.

Therefore MNS did damage the chances of SS+ in the urban areas of maharashtra in atleast 15 places. What was more shocking is that if this was the case, NCP would have no place in mumbai (the 3 they get are in Airoli, and Pune) and the independents and SP would have won no matter what.
What would have this meant to the total figures.
Congress+NCP = 144-(15) = 129
BJP+SS+MNS = 90+13(MNS)+(15)=128

Wow .... so MNS did dent the chances of SS-BJP coming back to power.
Well this was just the urban vote....
How did the rural maharashtra vote ? Did SS's drubbing in Marathwada make the ultimate difference... find out more tomorrow when I analyze the rural vote..